Newcastle Look to End Home Struggles as Forest Aim to Prove Their Top-Four Credentials in Crucial Premier League Clash. In Due of This, Opta Super Computer Gave some Important Predictions of a Possible Outcome in This Clash.

Newcastle United are tipped as the favorites to secure all three points, even though Nottingham Forest currently sit impressively in third place. As the two teams prepare to clash at St James’ Park, we break down key insights, stats, and predictions for this Premier League showdown.

Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest: Key Stats & Insights

According to the Opta supercomputer, Newcastle have a 51.4% chance of winning, compared to Forest’s 25.4%. The Magpies are determined to avoid a third consecutive home defeat in the league—something they haven’t experienced in four years. Meanwhile, Alexander Isak will be a player to watch, having scored in every match he’s played against Forest.

Newcastle’s Recent Struggles & Champions League Aspirations

Newcastle are eager to bounce back from a rough patch, knowing that this match carries significant weight in the race for a Champions League spot. They currently sit in seventh place, trailing Forest by six points. Eddie Howe’s squad has suffered three defeats in their last four league matches (W1), a stark contrast to their previous strong form (W8, D2, L2). The last time they lost more than two consecutive league games was back in December 2022 to January 2023.

Their home form has also taken a hit, with consecutive losses to Bournemouth and Fulham. They haven’t lost three straight at St James’ Park since the Steve Bruce era in early 2021. Howe, on the other hand, last experienced such a streak as Bournemouth’s manager in 2019.

Key Players to Watch

Alexander Isak: The Swedish striker has 17 Premier League goals to his name and has scored in all three of his encounters with Forest, netting four goals in total. Should he score again, he will join an elite group of Magpies who have netted in four consecutive meetings with a single opponent.

Chris Wood: The former Newcastle striker has been a key figure for Forest, tallying 29 goals in 41 Premier League matches under Nuno Espírito Santo. His efficiency in front of goal stands out—he boasts a remarkable 35% shot conversion rate under Nuno, the best among all players with at least 50 attempts since 2003-04.

Morgan Gibbs-White: The attacking midfielder has been in stellar form, contributing to nine goals (four goals, five assists) in his last 11 league appearances. Since the start of last season, only three English players have registered more assists than his 15.

Forest’s Away Form & Tactical Challenges

Nottingham Forest have endured consecutive away defeats in the Premier League, following their recent 2-1 loss to Fulham. This comes after an impressive run where they won four straight away games. They will be eager to avoid three consecutive away losses for the first time since December 2023.

Forest have been strong starters, taking the lead 19 times this season—more than any other team. However, when they fall behind, they struggle to recover, losing five out of six matches when conceding first. Their only comeback victory came against Aston Villa in December.

On the defensive end, Forest have allowed 342 shots against them this season while attempting only 318 themselves. Historically, only two teams have finished in the Premier League’s top four with a negative shot differential—Everton in 2004-05 and Spurs in 2021-22.

Team News

Newcastle could see the return of Sven Botman, who has been sidelined with a knee injury. However, they will still be without Joelinton (knee) and Jamaal Lascelles, who remains out long-term due to an ACL injury.

For Forest, striker Taiwo Awoniyi suffered a broken nose and concussion in their FA Cup match against Exeter but could return with a specially fitted medical mask.

Head-to-Head Record

Newcastle have dominated this fixture historically, losing just once in their last 13 Premier League encounters with Forest (W9, D3). However, that solitary defeat came in last season’s corresponding fixture when Chris Wood scored a hat-trick in a 3-1 win at St James’ Park.

Before that victory, Forest had lost seven consecutive league matches at Newcastle’s home ground. They haven’t won consecutive games at St James’ Park since the late 1980s.

In the reverse fixture earlier this season, Newcastle secured a 3-1 win at the City Ground, overturning an early goal from Murillo with second-half strikes from Isak, Joelinton, and Harvey Barnes.

Match Prediction

While Forest are enjoying a strong campaign, Newcastle remain favorites according to Opta’s supercomputer. In 10,000 simulations, the Magpies were given a 51.4% chance of winning, compared to 25.4% for Forest. A draw occurred in 23.3% of simulations.

Newcastle are projected to finish seventh in the league (22.6% probability), though they still have an outside chance of placing fourth (12.1%) or fifth (16.2%)—which could be enough for Champions League qualification.

Despite a tough run of fixtures ahead, Forest remain the most likely side to secure fourth place with a 23.7% probability.