NafisaThe battle to secure Champions League qualification is set to go down to the final whistle on the last day, with Manchester City, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United all in contention.
Liverpool and Arsenal have already booked their spots in next season’s Champions League, but beyond the top two, the fight for the remaining three positions is wide open.
Manchester City sit third with 68 points, while Newcastle, Chelsea and Aston Villa are all tied on 66, with Nottingham Forest trailing by just one point in seventh.
Opta’s supercomputer has now forecast which of the five Champions League hopefuls are most likely to finish in the top five alongside Liverpool and Arsenal.
Man City, Newcastle and Chelsea favoured to reach Champions League as Villa and Forest expected to fall short:
Opta’s supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations of the 10 crucial fixtures involving the top-five contenders and produced probabilities for each club’s potential finishing position.
City have been assigned a 96.8 percent probability of ending the campaign in either third, fourth or fifth place in the Premier League.
Newcastle’s estimated chances of sealing a top-five finish by Sunday evening come in at 82.1 percent.
Chelsea’s odds of qualifying for the Champions League stand at 57.9 percent, while Aston Villa’s likelihood has been calculated at 43.1 percent.
Forest’s projected chance of making a return to Europe’s elite club competition is 19.8 percent.
As such, Opta’s supercomputer anticipates that the current top-five standings will stay unchanged by the conclusion of matchday 38.
Tottenham have also booked their Champions League spot after triumphing over Manchester United in the Europa League final earlier this week.
Champions League earnings projections for each club:
The Athletic analysed the potential financial windfall for each of the clubs mentioned, should they reach the Champions League.
They emphasised that the figures are estimates, as this season’s revenue breakdowns have yet to be confirmed. Additionally, the tournament will operate under a new structure with complex revenue formulas.
Revenue will also vary depending on group-stage opponents, progress through the tournament, and recent performance in the competition.
Taking those factors into account, they estimated that City ‘should still top £50million in prize money’ if they qualify next term, even without picking up a single point in the 2025/26 campaign.
Chelsea are next, projected to rake in at least £48million, followed by Villa, expected to secure a minimum of £35million.
Newcastle are estimated to earn around £32million, with Forest narrowly behind with a figure just under Newcastle’s total.
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