NafisaNottingham Forest’s Champions League ambitions have suffered a setback in recent weeks.
Just one victory in their last five Premier League matches has seen Nuno Espirito Santo’s men slide out of the top five.
Still, the Reds’ hard-earned stalemate against Crystal Palace in their previous outing could prove to be a crucial point when all is said and done.
And it is their performance against sides in the lower half of the table throughout this campaign that fuels optimism the Tricky Trees can still book a place in next season’s premier European tournament.
Nottingham Forest’s impressive stats against lower-half Premier League teams:
According to Opta Analyst, Nottingham Forest have earned an average of 2.28 points per game versus clubs in the bottom half of the Premier League this season.
That ranks them fifth among all top-flight teams, trailing only the current top four of Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and Newcastle.
Rank | Club | Points per game
- Liverpool – 2.53
- Manchester City – 2.33
=3. Newcastle – 2.32
=3. Arsenal – 2.32 - Nottingham Forest – 2.28
Average points per game against bottom-half Premier League teams in 2024-25 (Opta Analyst)
With 19th-placed Leicester visiting the City Ground on Sunday, and an away clash at 17th-placed West Ham soon after, Forest will be aiming to collect full points and pile the pressure on the teams above them.
Should they succeed, the season’s finale promises to be gripping, with Espirito Santo’s men hosting fellow Champions League hopefuls Chelsea in Matchweek 38.
Opta Analyst refreshes its top-five Premier League forecasts:
Throughout much of this season, Opta has projected Nottingham Forest to secure Champions League qualification due to their consistent displays.
After recalibrating its metrics following the draw with Crystal Palace, Opta’s Supercomputer now assigns the Reds a 44.5% probability of finishing in the top five.
Club | Projected chance of top-five finish
Manchester City – 97.5%
Newcastle – 76.4%
Chelsea – 66%
Nottingham Forest – 44.5%
Aston Villa – 15.5%
Top-five finish chances (Opta Analyst)
By comparison, Manchester City are given a 97.5% shot, Newcastle 76.4%, and Chelsea 66%, meaning Opta no longer fully expects Forest to fall short.
After a campaign in which the team has impressed and regularly occupied the top four, falling at the final hurdle would be a tough pill to swallow.
Nonetheless, the remaining fixtures offer reason to believe Forest can still overcome the odds in a thrilling end-of-season race.
Nafisa
