NafisaWilson Isidor: A Statistical Improvement, Despite Recent Goal Drought
It’s been a testing period for Wilson Isidor as the French forward finds himself enduring a six-game barren run in front of goal. However, his overall contribution to the team this season—five goals already in the Championship—paints a promising picture, particularly when placed alongside last season’s faltering frontline.
The likes of Nazariy Rusyn, Mason Burstow, and Luis Hemir were tasked with leading the line last season. Combined, they featured in 55 league games, producing an extraordinarily low return of just three goals. Isidor, in contrast, has already netted five times in just 18 appearances during his debut season in English football.
Before assessing Isidor’s impact, it’s worth considering expected goals (XG)—a statistic that, while valuable, can sometimes be misleading. As an example, a simple tap-in from a yard out that is thwarted by a brilliant save would register an XG of close to one. On the other hand, Isidor’s acrobatic volley against Coventry—despite the exquisite technique required—would likely score lower on XG metrics.
Using data sourced from fbref, Isidor’s XG this season stands at 5.1, only marginally above his actual tally of five. It’s a sign of efficiency, particularly when compared to last year’s strikers. Rusyn managed an XG of 2.8 but underperformed, netting just twice—0.8 below his expected tally. Burstow’s XG was 2.0, yet he scored just once, an underperformance of exactly one goal. Hemir fared worst, failing to find the net at all despite his XG of 1.7.
The contrast is stark when you consider Isidor has played fewer games. Already, his output reveals him to be a significant upgrade on his predecessors.
Moving on to shots per 90 minutes, a figure that indicates a player’s ability to consistently get into goalscoring positions, Rusyn surprisingly topped the charts last season. He averaged 3.06 shots per 90, while Hemir managed 1.95 and Burstow registered just 1.51. Isidor, meanwhile, comes in at 2.65 shots per 90—a respectable return, albeit trailing Rusyn in this specific category.
However, as last season demonstrated, taking shots means little if you fail to convert them. Despite leading in shots per 90, Rusyn’s poor goal tally was a clear reflection of his inefficiency.
Which brings us to the final and perhaps most telling statistic: goals per shot. Isidor has scored five goals from 38 attempts, a conversion rate of 0.13 goals per shot. Rusyn managed two goals from 27 shots, equating to just 0.07, while Burstow matched that figure with one goal from 15 attempts. For context, the Championship’s current top scorer, Borja Sainz, is converting at a rate of 0.23 goals per shot—a clear benchmark for clinical finishing.
These figures reinforce the impression that, while Isidor’s numbers could be improved, he remains a marked step forward from last season’s strikeforce.
Kristjaan Speakman, Sunderland’s sporting director, deserves credit for identifying and securing Isidor, whose performances have provided a significant upgrade. Yet frustration is starting to creep in among sections of the fanbase. Calls for the 23-year-old to be dropped are perhaps premature. Sunderland supporters, accustomed to strikers struggling for goals in recent campaigns, may be overreacting to a familiar scenario.
It’s worth remembering that even the club’s recent talisman, Ross Stewart, experienced similar dry spells. During Sunderland’s promotion-winning season in League One, Stewart went six games without scoring yet still ended the campaign with 24 league goals, plus two crucial strikes in the play-offs.
“I’m not suggesting Isidor will match those numbers,” comes the voice of reason. “But every striker goes through these periods. Once one goes in, the goals often come in bursts.”
With a crucial fixture against Norwich on Saturday, the hope remains that Isidor can break his duck and rediscover the form that has already made him Sunderland’s most effective striker in recent memory. If and when that happens, confidence could surge, and Isidor may well find himself flying once again.
Nafisa
